Blog of Jeff

MSNBC had an article last Friday talking about new changes being proposed by Obama’s team because it turns out that they weren’t 100% confident that illegal immigrants wouldn’t receive services under the proposed health care reform. Story Here. The basic idea was that the original plan said undocumented Americans would not be allowed to participate. However, there was very little in the bill about checking their documenting status so it would have been easy for some percentage to slide into the system. The revised White House plan adds some of the additional verification mechanisms that Representative Joe Wilson wanted.

So, calling the president a liar can get you somewhere.

The sad and ironic part is that we are being completely stupid and short-sighted by NOT covering illegal immigrants. I am a staunch anti-illegal immigrant person, because I believe that undocumented immigration is a security threat and reduces wages of minimum skilled Americans. I want fences and strong enforcement against employers that hire illegal immigrants. With all that in mind though, I believe health care policy trumps immigration policy. Immigrants will still receive more expensive emergency room treatment and they will still spread contagious diseases. Making sure that all the people in this country, regardless of immigration status, have access to basic medical care and vaccinations lowers costs and risks for all of us. Also, they would be paying premiums into the Exchange. If there are any government program where we should be OK with undocumented workers participating, it should be the one that requires putting money into the system.

OK, the new day job has stabilized some and it’s a new year, so I’m going to try and pick back up with the blogging. Probably won’t return to every day writing, but 3 times a week is a good reasonable target to at least keep me in practice.

Politics seem interesting these days with nothing settled after two states. Last time I blogged, I really thought Romney was going to run away with the GOP nomination, so he’s really lost some shine since then. At that time, John McCain was dead man walking with Iraq and immigration hung around his neck like a noose. Good results from the surge and backpedaling from his former “comprehensive” immigration plan to an enforcement first approach seems to have brought quite a bit of life back to him.

Fun times indeed …

Another story in the Houston Chronicle on Sunday made the same old points about immigration.

• they are good people who pay taxes and obey the non-immigration laws
• they are vital to the economy
• the recent bill made immigrants pay hefty fines
• the recent bill required years of waiting before citizenship
• the recent bill made security much better
• A tiny outspoken minority of xenophobes overwhelmed the good-hearted majority and
• that minority just doesn’t get it

I work in the non-profit industry and I am frequently on the bleeding heart side of issues, but this one cuts the other direction. The first argument against most of the above facts is that they were all equally true in 1986. The problem is NOT the illegal immigrants that were here in 1986 and it is not the immigrants here now; the big problem is the horde of immigrants that FOLLOW this type of legislation.

Most of these immigrants want a job. If they are legally allowed to have a job, they don’t care about the other stuff they can get or might get years down the road. And this bill would have given them immediate permission to get and keep a job. Millions more would try to get in and fake their way into one of those jobs, once again overwhelming whatever we can put on the border. It is ending the easy access to the labor market that will stop the flood.

Furthermore, that argument that it is a vocal minority shouting down a righteous minority has been killed in the polls. Witness McCain’s implosion while Elizabeth Dole soared higher than it had been in years. Lindsey Graham also went down  as he supported the bill, and hey, Mitt Romney continues to climb in presidential polls after taking a firm stance against the bill. The immigration bill was attacked as bad legislation by lefties, righties and moderates. It’s final death blow was BIPARTISAN with many Democrats joining Republicans to kill it despite White House support.

There is also the economics of labor. When the labor market is tight (because immigration is limited and immigration laws are enforced), wages rise, including those at the lower skill level of the market. That was the model of economic growth during the Clinton years. During much of the Bush years, we have seen wages rise only at the upper rungs. That coincidentally matches Bush’s more relaxed enforcement of immigration law than Clinton. I still cannot understand why a Democrat would try so hard to reduce the wages of the low-skilled Americans that usually vote for them. (Actually, I do know why. They think they will get a bigger share of the Latino vote than Republicans will if they go this way. So, it’s about selling out a shrinking constituency to get a bigger one. That’s definitely not a noble reason …)

I won’t be blogging much until after the 4th due to a vacation, but at least it comes on the glorious news of the immigration bill’s death. The House may still propose something from there side, but there is a good chance that it will be a smaller, more reasonable bill.

A focus on border security, actually deporting at least the worst illegal immigrant criminals and cracking down on businesses to reduce the availability of jobs of illegal immigrants are all steps that will reduce the tide of illegal immigrants constantly trying to enter the country. If all those steps take place, then we can work on measures to assimilate the millions of illegals already here. Of course, all those steps require a President and Homeland Security Head that will actually TRY to take those steps, instead of just ignoring the laws that they don’t like.

A big question around enforcement of laws and reducing the availability of jobs for illegal immigrants is how many of the millions already here would voluntarily leave. If we could actually hit a point where as many illegal immigrants were leaving each month as were entering, that would be the sign of a working policy and a country headed for at least a stablized immigration policy. We would also get the opportunity to find out how many jobs there are that Americans truly will not do and how many legal immigrants we should allow into the country to perform those jobs.

But it is clear that it will take a new President first, because this one is intent on keeping the flood gates open as wide and as long as he can. Since Obama and Clinton also seem keen on flooding the country will illegal immigrants, that raises the odds of either the status quo or worse immigration enforcement in the future. It looks like Romney might be strongest candidate who spoke against the recent bill.

Maybe Giuliani did also, but I still have hard time thinking of him as a first tier candidate. He is a scandal machine that makes Bill Clinton look mild by comparison. If you play the 7 degrees game with him, you end up with a lot of the kind of people who might know where Hoffa is buried. (Or will know by the time they finish their political/prison terms …)

I am close to taking a week vacation and it would be much more enjoyable if the Senate hadn’t decided to take their best shot at destroying the country. The cloture vote today means the immigration bill is still alive.

 For those who are keeping score and want to know who to hate, here is the list of who voted for what:

Grouped By Vote Position YEAs —64 Akaka (D-HI) Bennett (R-UT) Biden (D-DE) Bingaman (D-NM) Bond (R-MO) Boxer (D-CA) Brown (D-OH) Brownback (R-KS) Burr (R-NC) Cantwell (D-WA) Cardin (D-MD) Carper (D-DE) Casey (D-PA) Clinton (D-NY) Coleman (R-MN) Collins (R-ME) Conrad (D-ND) Craig (R-ID) Dodd (D-CT) Domenici (R-NM) Durbin (D-IL) Ensign (R-NV) Feingold (D-WI) Feinstein (D-CA) Graham (R-SC) Gregg (R-NH) Hagel (R-NE) Harkin (D-IA) Inouye (D-HI) Kennedy (D-MA) Kerry (D-MA) Klobuchar (D-MN) Kohl (D-WI) Kyl (R-AZ) Lautenberg (D-NJ) Leahy (D-VT) Levin (D-MI) Lieberman (ID-CT) Lincoln (D-AR) Lott (R-MS) Lugar (R-IN) Martinez (R-FL) McCain (R-AZ) McConnell (R-KY) Menendez (D-NJ) Mikulski (D-MD) Murkowski (R-AK) Murray (D-WA) Nelson (D-FL) Nelson (D-NE) Obama (D-IL) Pryor (D-AR) Reed (D-RI) Reid (D-NV) Salazar (D-CO) Schumer (D-NY) Snowe (R-ME) Specter (R-PA) Stevens (R-AK) Voinovich (R-OH) Warner (R-VA) Webb (D-VA) Whitehouse (D-RI) Wyden (D-OR)

NO:

NAYs —35 Alexander (R-TN) Allard (R-CO) Barrasso (R-WY) Baucus (D-MT) Bayh (D-IN) Bunning (R-KY) Byrd (D-WV) Chambliss (R-GA) Coburn (R-OK) Cochran (R-MS) Corker (R-TN) Cornyn (R-TX) Crapo (R-ID) DeMint (R-SC) Dole (R-NC) Dorgan (D-ND) Enzi (R-WY) Grassley (R-IA) Hatch (R-UT) Hutchison (R-TX) Inhofe (R-OK) Isakson (R-GA) Landrieu (D-LA) McCaskill (D-MO) Roberts (R-KS) Rockefeller (D-WV) Sanders (I-VT) Sessions (R-AL) Shelby (R-AL) Smith (R-OR) Stabenow (D-MI) Sununu (R-NH) Tester (D-MT) Thune (R-SD) Vitter (R-LA)

There are 4 presidential candidates in that yea list. Obama, Clinton, Brownback and McCain. Wait, is Biden still running? Make that five. If you were even remotely considering one of those people, you should think long and hard about the ramifications of this bill. It is bad for blue-collar Americans, it is bad for recent immigrants and it is bad for pending legal immigrants. All so a few companies can make their products a few pennies cheaper.

Here is a good summary of why this bill is bad. http://article.nationalreview.com/?q=YmY1MGJmMjFiNTUxMWQ0YTIzMzJkNGNlYTEwNTdmNjg=

If you care about this issue and one of your senators voted yea on today’s cloture vote, you should contact and blast them for it. (Find your Senator here: http://www.senate.gov/general/contact_information/senators_cfm.cfm) If they think they can get away with today’s vote to resume discussion, they will think they can get away with passing this pile of garbage.

On the positive front, if your Senator voted against cloture today, you should give them a call or e-mail and let them know you are happy with them. We don’t want them to weaken on us on the next vote.

On Meet the Press this morning, I watched some pro-immigration bill guy debate Pat Buchanan. 90% of his comments were based on the age of the American workforce and how they will desperately need laborers when the boomers start retiring.

This is another of those incredibly stupid arguments that makes no sense. All we have to do is increase the number of allowed legal immigrants each year to meet that demand. In fact, that approach will be even better for the immigrants, because there will be less competition for those jobs. An intelligent policy would match the skills of the applicants with the jobs in demand.

That is one of the paradoxes of this bill. It totally screws current, pending and future legal immigrants and yet the people who are against it are accused of being uncaring racists. I am fine with increasing the number of people who are allowed to immigrate to this country. I am fine with increasing it dramatically. And I don’t care what countries they come from.

I just have this crazy idea that we shouldn’t hand out the right to be in this country without thoroughly checking them out (more than a cursory 24-hour background check), weeding out the bad apples (no gang members, drug dealers and pedophiles please) and without favoring illegals over those trying to get in the legal way. It would also be nice if employers were accountable in some way, shape or form for intentionally hiring illegal immigrants to reduce their costs.

I am not proposing anything xenophobic and it is nonsense for Bush, Lott and Co. trying to play that card. It is also insane that they are blaming the same right wing talk shows that helped put them into office. The fact that a lot of people who listen to talk radio think the politicians are wrong doesn’t make that fact any less accurate.

The reality is that many of these talk show hosts don’t generate opinions or policies on their own; they echo what they think Americans are thinking. That is why their ratings are good. And it is pretty clear that an increasing number of Americans think this bill is garbage.

http://hutchison.senate.gov/pr062107c.html - Senator Hutchison’s formal statement that she will not vote for cloture on the immigration bill. Looks like all the e-mails and letters from Texas made a difference here. She is still a bit of a fence sitter in terms of viewing comprehensive immigration as a good thing if it has the right amendments, but at least she is off the “yes” vote list for the moment.

http://noamaskew.blogspot.com/2007/06/cloture-vote-guesses-hunt-for-60.html - Noam Askew lists senators who have publicly said they will or will not vote for cloture. If your senator is on the list as undecided, then it is time to send them an e-mail. Every now and then, public opinion can actually influence legislation and it needs to happen now. Whether you are a liberal concerned about low-wage workers (see http://borjas.typepad.com/the_borjas_blog/2007/06/an-oddity-in-th.html for some economics on who suffers from illegal immigration) or a conservative (see any conservative who isn’t owned by W) concerned about criminals being given a free pass into our country, this bill sucks.

Not many posts these days as I have been busy changing day jobs. But the return of the immigration nonsense is really depressing. Yesterday, Sean Hannity (one of my least favorite people) was raking Tony Snow (one my even less favorite people) over the coals.

I have to admit that I find right-wing vs. right-wing fisticuffs rather entertaining considering how often they march in lock-step. The problem is that the left wing isn’t coming out strong against the Dems, because the bill is a piece of garbage even if you are a liberal democrat.

It isn’t hard to figure out that 12 million workers who are largely low-skill, low-education workers makes it harder for low-skill, low-education Americans to find jobs and that those jobs pay lower wages due to competition with immigrants. Those same blue-collar workers used to be one of the strongest constituencies of the Democratic Party.

So, with the immigration bill we will have the best of both worlds when it comes to low-education workers. Our lousy educational systems will keep producing Americans who are only competitive for the jobs that immigrants will be filling. Our 50% high school graduation rate here in Houston bodes real well in relation to an immigration bill that intends to give away millions of jobs that are their best bet to avoid welfare or jail.

Not much time for blogging the last week. Day job issues and too much irritation at political issues these days. The immigration bill is still one of the worst pieces of legislation ever written and Bush/Chertoff keep blasting critics as if its their fault that it is a piece of #%@# bill.

It’s especially galling to hear Chertoff talk about how this bill will fix the borders. This man was the master of disaster Katrina. He is the top un-enforcer of current immigation law. He is the top man in charge of allowing guys with deadly TB on no-fly lists to go on ahead if they look OK. And we are supposed to believe that this law will be enforced, just because he says so?

The man is incompetent. His agency is exactly the type of big government bureaucratic slow-moving obscenity that Republicans are supposed to be against. And we are talking about a bill to give him billions of extra dollars and personnel to do an even tougher job than the one he has completely failed to do so far.

Aside from any feelings regarding illegal immigrants and the employers who hire them, just the fact that this bill greatly expands homeland security is a reason to oppose it vehemently. We had a “comprehensive immigration” reform law in 1986. Congress should be asking Chertoff why he hasn’t been enforcing that law before it authorizes an even more convulted immigration law based off the assumption that Chertoff will be any more effective at enforcing it.

And Chertoff should be the last person out selling this bill. His complete and total failure to enforce existing immigration law (despite the dramatic increase of resources that the war on terror and the department of homeland security has thrown his way) is why we have millions of illegal immigrants in this country and businesses that do not worry at all about the legal consequences of hiring them.

He had the greatest opportunity of all time to lock our borders down and instead left them totally thrown open. The first few years after 9/11, he had total public support and a blank check from congress. Yet, somehow, securing our border never made the war on terror’s priority list and his agency just never quite got arround to it. Oh, and some businesses that hire illegal immigrants happen to be Republican funders. Can’t forget the importance of that little nugget.

And, of course, Bush deserves full credit for his part in this idiocy. If we fight the terrorists over there, we won’t have to fight them here. So, terrorists are so excited about fighting our armed and trained soldiers in the middle east, they won’t bother to waltz across our totally unsecure border to attack defenseless civilians? Strategery at its finest.

Despite all the coverage the immigration bill is getting, I haven’t seen anything about the employer side of the question. When an illegal immigrant presents a pay stub for a visa, it will give the government proof that an employer has been hiring illegal immigrants. Since the theory is that at least a percentage of these immigrants are being paid less than minimum wage, will the employers be responsible for backpay or making up their part of any payroll taxes.

And how will businesses respond if they are now responsible for paying a minimum wage to these employees? Will they accept that as the cost of doing businesses or will they secretly exert a preference for immigrants who have not filed for a visa and are staying in the dark? What will be the good of filing for a visa if it means the immigrant will get fired?

I can’t figure out the bill well enough to tell if it does anything to employers, but that seems to be a big piece of analysis that is missing.