Afghanistan really is a damned if you, damned if you don’t situation, so I guess Obama’s plan is as good as any at this stage. But one thing about his speech that really, really bugged me was his reference to this being a multinational effort. Bush tried spinning that nonsense also, but it is stupid. The first issue is that most of the nations have provided non-combat troops, such as mechanics, truck drivers, etc., that do not participate in counter insurgency missions or leave their base areas.
The second issue is just plain numeric. Yes, forty-something countries have people there. But that means counting Ukraine’s 10, Iceland’s 8, Luxemburg’s 8, Ireland’s 7, Jordan’s 7, Austria’s 4, Singapore’s 2, and last,and least, Georgia’s 1.
After the increase that Obama just announced, the US will have over 60,000 troops there. The UK will have 9,000, Germany will have 4,200 Canada 2,800, France around 3,000, and so on down the list. If you only count countries with 1,000 or more troops, there are less than 10 in Afghanistan. After the increase, we will have 62,000 of 100,000 and the vast majority of the combat responsibilities. The only real forces there are those sent by our NATO partners that felt that they had a moral obligation to provide some level of support, but they’re doing their best to keep it minimal.
The third issue is that these numbers break down into a war of Christians against Muslims, European tourists against the locals, light-skins against the dark-skins. Compare these numbers to those of the first Iraq war and there is a huge difference. Saudi Arabia, Egypt , Kuwait, Morocco, Qatar, South Korea, Japan, Philippines, Niger, Syria, Sierra Leone, and Singapore put troops and/or money in that war. Yes, we were still the largest force, but there was clearly much more diversity in continents, ethnicities, and religions. Perhaps, most importantly, there were countries FROM THAT REGION involved. There were troops that knew the local culture and customs. There were troops that looked like the locals and worshiped in similar ways. How exactly are a bunch of touristy, white-skinned Christians from Europe and North America supposed to convince the locals that they are more trustworthy that the local Taliban fighters that have lived there for their entire lives?
The bottom line is that this is a war of Christians against Muslims. It is also a war of hearts and minds. We have to look more trustworthy, more committed, more compassionate, more intelligent, and more resourceful than the locals. I’m sure we can look like the nice guys compared to the Taliban, but cultural barriers and distance are a real problem on the rest. It sure would help if we really did have a lot of multinational help from nations in the region. But all we got is Anglo-Europeans and not enough of that beyond ourselves.